B2Gold Corp

B2Gold Corp. is a major with producing mines in the Philippines, Namibia, Canada, and Mali. Production is scheduled for around 850K oz in 2026 and 1M oz in 2027 (after Back River - Goose reaches full production). Costs in 2025 are up at around $2400 AISC and $3400 all-in costs (free cash flow), but should drop in 2027. It currently has a 2.5% dividend and is cheap. Investors don't like their higher costs and Mali exposure (50% of their revenue).

Back River - Goose has a crusher problem for 2026. Production will drop around 50% to 50K to 80K vs the expected 80K to 100K, and the AISC jumped to $2700. Ouch. The share price got whacked. The good news is that it can be repaired. The bad news is that it will take until Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 to be fixed. They are expecting 300K/year production from Back River in 2027, but no guidance on the AISC.

They have a large exploration budget and will likely increase their resources, which are about 25 million oz. This company likes to grow through acquisitions, buying Volta Resources and Papillon Resources in 2013 and 2014, and then Sabina in 2023. They hold 10% ownership positions in Snowline Gold and 5% in Founders Metals, which are likely their next acquisitions. They have $500M ownership shares in various mining companies.

Management has done a good job executing, growing production from nothing in 2007 to 1M oz in 2025. They did that while keeping costs low and not accumulating a lot of debt (which most Majors tend to do). Their balance sheet is strong, with about $385 million in cash and $460 million in convertible debt. The key for them is going to be keeping their costs from rising and keeping their mine operating in Mali.

In 2023, they acquired Sabina Gold & Silver, paying a 45% premium. This will help them to diversify into a good location and add a large long-life mine. Back River - Goose has 6M oz of gold and will begin production in Q2 2025, ramping up to a 300,000 oz run-rate in 2027. It is likely to grow in size. It also has a lot of exploration drill targets.

I'm surprised at its low valuation. I've always had my eye on it because I like their management team and quality projects. I finally bought it after the recent sell-off. I think investors have lost their minds letting it get this cheap. It's currently printing with a 5 FCF multiple and is highly leveraged for higher gold prices. So, it's cheap and pays a dividend. You can't beat that with a stick. Of course, you can never know what can go wrong, and Mali has been a bit of a mess, and that is what investors are avoiding.

In the Sabina acquisition, they received a 22.5% NSR on the Hackett River project in Nunavut. The royalty is equal to 22.5% of the first 190 million ounces of payable silver, and 12.5% thereafter. Hacket River is owned by Glencore. The PEA calls for 12,000 tpd, which is 8M oz of silver a year. At $40 silver, that is a $75M a year royalty.

Hacket River won't be built with that huge NSR in place. Could B2G acquire the project from Glencore? Sure. What is 8M oz a year worth with low costs? It has 4.5% zinc, 0.6% lead, and 0.5% copper offsets. Let's do the math at $50 silver: $8M x $30 = $240M in FCF x 10 = $2.4B. The NSR is worth at least $100M at $50 silver. At $100 silver, Hackett River is worth about their current mkt cap.

Pipeline of projects:

Gramalote (Colombia). 200K oz /yr in 2029 or 2030. Permits due in 2027. 2.5-year build.

Antelope (Namibia). 65K oz/yr in 2028

Lapland (Finland). Exploration drilling.

Hacket River (Nunavut). 22% NSR. 190M oz AG project.

Back River - George. 1.5M oz at 8 gpt AU. 30 miles from the Goose mill.

Anaconda (Mali). 2M oz at 1.1 gpt.

Snowline Gold. 10% ownership.

Founders Metals. 5% ownership.


DD