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Category: Mid-tier Producer
Rating: 3.00   (Potential 5 Bagger as of 02/03/2017)
Risk: High
Alio Gold Inc.
www: aliogold.com     email: info@aliogold.com

Profile
Notes
Forum
Your Data

Price Data

Symbol Date Price Change 52 Wk Range Volume
NYSEMKT:ALO 06/28/2017 USD 5.720 0.230 6.280 - 0.450 0
TSE:ALO 06/28/2017 CAD 7.4300 0.2100 7.9900 - 5.8900 184,773
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Don's Summary (from last analysis - 02/03/2017)

Alio Gold (previously Timmins Gold) is a mid tier producer that began producing in 2010. They are aggressive with the drill bit and have 500,000 acres to explore in Mexico on 10 properties. Their San Francisco mine is winding down. They only plan to produce 500,000 oz through 2023. All-in costs are around $1150. Production of about 75,000 oz is planned for 2017.

In 2015, they purchased Newstrike Capital at the bottom of the market. This allowed them to add the Ana Paula project, which is a 2 million oz (1.2 gpt) open project with $500 per oz cash costs. It has a high IRR over 40% at $1300 gold. Ana Paula will give them 100,000 oz of production for 10+ years. It is currently being permitted with construction around 2018. The capex is $120 million, which will probably add some dilution to build the mine. Currently they have a good balance sheet with zero debt and $33 million in cash.

Once Ana Paula begins production around 2019, they will also have production from San Francisco. This will give them about 150,000 oz of production until 2023 or 2024. Hopefully they will find a third mine by that time to replace San Francisco.

General Details

Financial 02/03/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Mkt. Cap (Fully Diluted): $159.26M $219.17M 05/16/2017 $59.90M
Total Assets: $153.12M $173.49M 03/31/2017 $20.37M
Total Liabilities: $29.16M $24.19M 03/31/2017 $-4.97M
Current Assets: $40.71M $56.62M 03/31/2017 $15.91M
Current Liabilities: $18.44M $15.61M 03/31/2017 $-2.83M
Total Debt: $0.66M $0.10M 03/31/2017 $-0.56M
Cash: $33.00M $39.19M 03/31/2017 $6.19M
Enterprise Value: $126.92M $180.08M 09/16/1975 $53.15M
Cash Flow: $3.66M $4.83M never $1.17M
Cash Flow Multiple: 43.52 45.38 never 1.85
Net Debt to Cash Flow Ratio: n/a n/a never 0.00
Finance within 1 year: 02/03/2017 n/a
Tax Rate: (guess)  30.00% (default)  30.00% 02/03/2017 0.00%
Misc 02/03/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Share Price: $0.415 $5.707 16:06 on 06/28/2017 $5.29
Shares Outstanding: 355,000,000 35,563,000 05/16/2017 -319,437,000
Shares Fully Diluted: 384,000,000 38,400,000 05/16/2017 -345,600,000
Insider Ownership: n/a 29% 05/16/2017 29%
Company Type: Mostly Gold Mostly Gold never n/a
Production ETA: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 n/a
Production (Gold Eq Oz.): (guess) 
75,000
(guess) 
75,000
02/03/2017 0
Production (Silver Eq Oz.): (guess) 
5,233,267
(guess) 
5,604,693
02/03/2017 371,427
Initial CapEx (Outstanding): n/a n/a 02/03/2017 n/a
Funding Option: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 n/a
Documentation: none PRODUCER 05/16/2017 n/a
Value Adjustment: none none never 0%

Resource Data

GOLD 02/03/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: 1.60M 1.60M 02/03/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 2.80M 2.80M 02/03/2017 0.00M
Inferred: 0.20M 0.20M 02/03/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 3.00M 3.00M never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: 1.36M 1.36M 02/03/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 2.18M 2.18M 02/03/2017 0.00M
Inferred: 0.09M 0.09M 02/03/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 2.26M 2.26M never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: (guess) 
75,000oz.
(guess) 
75,000oz.
02/03/2017 0oz.
Cash Cost: $750 $750 02/03/2017 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: $400 $400 02/03/2017 $0.00
Average Grade: 1.00 g/t 1.00 g/t 02/03/2017 n/a
Recovery Rate: (CG)  85.00% (CG)  85.00% 05/16/2017 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: 3.00M 3.00M 02/03/2017 0.00M
Annual Production: 150,000oz. 150,000oz. 02/03/2017 0oz.
Cash Cost: $750 $750 02/03/2017 $0
Extra Operating Cost: $400 $400 02/03/2017 $0
SILVER 02/03/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 $0.00
Average Grade: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 n/a
Recovery Rate: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 0.00M
Annual Production: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 n/a
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 n/a
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 n/a

Property

Last Analysis Data  (02/03/2017)
Stage Location Name Owned Size (Ha) Type Au Ag Cu Notes
Production Sonora, Mexico San Francisco 100% 45,000 Open Pit show
Two open pit producing mines.

1 million oz in resources (.8 gpt)
Exploration Mexico Ana Paula 100% (guess) n/a Open Pit show
2 million oz resource (1.2 gpt), plus 10 million oz of silver (6 gpt). The conceptual model implies there is 5 million oz of gold and 30 million oz of silver.
Exploration Mexico Aurea Norte 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
Early exploration. Some drilling.
Exploration Mexico Aurea Sur 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
Early exploration. No drilling yet.
Exploration Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico Cocula 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Puerto Vallarta, Mexico El Capomo 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Mexico El Picacho 0% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Concepcion Del Oro, Mexico Tim Claims 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Sonora, Mexico Trincheras and Patricia 100% n/a n/a n/a
Total Land Package Size (ha): 45,000  
Current Data
Stage Location Name Owned Size (Ha) Type Au Ag Cu Notes
Production Sonora, Mexico San Francisco 100% 45,000 Open Pit show
Two open pit producing mines.

1 million oz in resources (.8 gpt)
Exploration Mexico Ana Paula 100% (guess) n/a Open Pit show
2 million oz resource (1.2 gpt), plus 10 million oz of silver (6 gpt). The conceptual model implies there is 5 million oz of gold and 30 million oz of silver.
Exploration Mexico Aurea Norte 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
Early exploration. Some drilling.
Exploration Mexico Aurea Sur 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
Early exploration. No drilling yet.
Exploration Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico Cocula 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Puerto Vallarta, Mexico El Capomo 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Mexico El Picacho 0% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Concepcion Del Oro, Mexico Tim Claims 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Sonora, Mexico Trincheras and Patricia 100% n/a n/a n/a
Total Land Package Size (ha): 45,000  

Profitability (by resource)

Proven &
Probable
02/03/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 1.60M 1.60M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a 7.92M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 1.36M 1.36M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a 6.74M
Maximum Profit (Gold): $66.35M $87.58M n/a $21.23M
Maximum Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Maximum Profit: $66.35M $87.58M n/a $21.23M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.417 0.400 n/a -0.017
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): $0.17 $2.28 n/a $2.11
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Max Profit Per Share: $0.17 $2.28 n/a $2.11
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $117.10 $161.15 n/a $44.05
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $1.68 $2.16 n/a $0.48
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
9.60% 12.98% n/a 3.37%
Measured &
Indicated
02/03/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 2.80M 2.80M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a 13.87M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 2.18M 2.18M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a 10.78M
Maximum Profit (Gold): $106.17M $140.13M n/a $33.97M
Maximum Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Maximum Profit: $106.17M $140.13M n/a $33.97M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.667 0.639 n/a -0.027
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): $0.28 $3.65 n/a $3.37
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Max Profit Per Share: $0.28 $3.65 n/a $3.37
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $73.19 $100.72 n/a $27.53
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $1.05 $1.35 n/a $0.30
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
6.00% 8.11% n/a 2.11%

Reserves &
Resources
02/03/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 3.00M 3.00M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a 14.86M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 2.26M 2.26M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a 11.20M
Maximum Profit (Gold): $110.31M $145.61M n/a $35.29M
Maximum Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Maximum Profit: $110.31M $145.61M n/a $35.29M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.693 0.664 n/a -0.028
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): $0.29 $3.79 n/a $3.50
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Max Profit Per Share: $0.29 $3.79 n/a $3.50
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $70.44 $96.93 n/a $26.49
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $1.01 $1.30 n/a $0.29
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
5.78% 7.80% n/a 2.03%

Future Valuation (Cash Flow & Totals)

Totals 02/03/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
R & R Valuation: $413.66M $421.22M n/a $7.56M
Mkt. Cap: $159.26M $219.17M n/a $59.90M
Annual Gold Production: (guess) 
75,000oz.
(guess) 
75,000oz.
02/03/2017 0oz.
Annual Silver Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
F

U

T

U

R

E
FD Mkt. Cap: $1,125.00M $1,125M n/a $0M
FD Mkt. Cap Growth: 606% 413% n/a -193%
Annual
Production
Gold: 150,000 oz. 150,000 oz. n/a 0 oz.
Silver: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Current FD
Mkt. Cap /
Gold Eq. Reserves: 53.09 73.06 n/a 19.97
Silver Eq. Reserves: 2.12 2.92 n/a 0.80
Gold Eq. Production: 1,061.75 1,461.12 n/a 399.36
Silver Eq. Production: 42.47 58.44 n/a 15.97
P&P
Reserves
(oz.)
Gold: 3.00M 3.00M 02/03/2017 n/a
Silver: n/a n/a 02/03/2017 n/a
Gold Eq.: 3.00M 3.00M 02/03/2017 n/a
Silver Eq.: 75.00M 75.00M 02/03/2017 n/a
P&P Reserves
per FD
Share (oz.)
Gold: 0.008 0.078 n/a 0.070
Silver: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Gold Eq.: 0.008 0.078 n/a 0.070
Silver Eq.: 0.195 1.953 n/a 1.758
Cash Flow 02/03/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Current: $3.66M $4.83M n/a $1.17M
Current Multiple: 43.52 45.38 n/a 1.85
F
U
T
U
R
E
@ current prices: $6.27M $8.28M n/a $2.01M
Multiple @ current prices: 25.39 26.47 n/a 1.08
Growth @ current prices: 71.43% 71.43% n/a 0.00
@ future prices: $121.50M $121.50M n/a $0.00M
Multiple @ future prices: 1.31 1.80 n/a 0.49
Growth @ future prices: 2,415.53% 2,415.53% n/a -8.05

Defaults

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