Subscribe Now - Click Here:       1 Year for only $149   or   3 months for $99

Category: Mid-tier Producer
Rating: 2.50   (Likely 3 Bagger as of 10/08/2017)
Risk: Moderate
Alio Gold Inc.
www: aliogold.com     email: info@aliogold.com

Profile
Notes
Forum
Your Data

Price Data

Symbol Date Price Change 52 Wk Range Volume
NYSEMKT:ALO 11/22/2017 USD 3.130 0.050 0.000 - 0.000 0
TSE:ALO 11/21/2017 CAD 3.9700 0.0700 0.0000 - 0.0000 0
Alert me when stock is updated

Don's Summary (from last analysis - 10/08/2017)

Alio Gold (previously Timmins Gold) is a mid-tier producer that began producing in 2010. Their San Francisco mine is winding down. They only plan to produce 500,000 oz through 2023, although I expect this to be extended because it currently has 900,000 oz in reserves. All-in costs are around $1150. Production of about 85,000 oz is planned for 2017.

In 2015, they purchased Newstrike Capital. This allowed them to add the Ana Paula project, which is a 2 million oz (2 gpt) open project with about $500 per oz cash costs. It has a high IRR over 40% at $1300 gold. Ana Paula will give them 115,000 oz of production for about 10 years. It is currently being permitted with a feasibility study due in Q2 2018. The capex is $137 million, which will be financed with their current cash balance of $64 million, plus about $90 million in debt. Hopefully the can keep their share dilution down after their 10 to 1 reverse split in 2017.

Once Ana Paula begins production in late 2019 or early 2020, they will also have production from San Francisco. This will give them about 175,000 oz of production from 2020 to around 2025. Hopefully they will find a third mine by that time to replace San Francisco. They have 500,000 acres to explore in Mexico on 10 properties.

General Details

Financial 10/08/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Mkt. Cap (Fully Diluted): $226.88M $162.34M 10/08/2017 $-64.54M
Total Assets: $182.05M $182.05M 10/08/2017 $0.00M
Total Liabilities: $28.98M $28.98M 10/08/2017 $0.00M
Current Assets: $65.00M $65.00M 10/08/2017 $0.00M
Current Liabilities: $19.29M $19.29M 10/08/2017 $0.00M
Total Debt: $0.00M $0.00M 10/08/2017 $0.00M
Cash: $64.00M $64.00M 10/08/2017 $0.00M
Enterprise Value: $162.88M $98.34M 02/11/1973 $-64.54M
Cash Flow: $7.50M $8.38M never $0.88M
Cash Flow Multiple: 30.26 19.38 never -10.89
Net Debt to Cash Flow Ratio: n/a n/a never 0.00
Finance within 1 year: 10/08/2017 n/a
Tax Rate: (guess)  30.00% (default)  30.00% 10/08/2017 0.00%
Misc 10/08/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Share Price: $4.363 $3.122 14:11 on 11/21/2017 $-1.24
Shares Outstanding: 44,000,000 44,000,000 10/08/2017 0
Shares Fully Diluted: 52,000,000 52,000,000 10/08/2017 0
Insider Ownership: n/a 29% 10/08/2017 29%
Company Type: Mostly Gold Mostly Gold never n/a
Production ETA: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 n/a
Production (Gold Eq Oz.): (guess) 
85,000
(guess) 
85,000
10/08/2017 0
Production (Silver Eq Oz.): (guess) 
6,452,112
(guess) 
6,423,770
10/08/2017 -28,341
Initial CapEx (Outstanding): n/a n/a 10/08/2017 n/a
Funding Option: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 n/a
Documentation: none PRODUCER 10/08/2017 n/a
Value Adjustment: none none never 0%

Resource Data

GOLD 10/08/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: 1.90M 1.90M 10/08/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 2.80M 2.80M 10/08/2017 0.00M
Inferred: 0.20M 0.20M 10/08/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 3.00M 3.00M never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: 1.62M 1.62M 10/08/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 2.23M 2.23M 10/08/2017 0.00M
Inferred: 0.09M 0.09M 10/08/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 2.31M 2.31M never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: (guess) 
85,000oz.
(guess) 
85,000oz.
10/08/2017 0oz.
Cash Cost: $750 $750 10/08/2017 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: $400 $400 10/08/2017 $0.00
Average Grade: 1.50 g/t 1.50 g/t 10/08/2017 n/a
Recovery Rate: (CG)  85.00% (CG)  85.00% 10/08/2017 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: 2.50M 2.50M 10/08/2017 0.00M
Annual Production: 150,000oz. 150,000oz. 10/08/2017 0oz.
Cash Cost: $750 $750 10/08/2017 $0
Extra Operating Cost: $400 $400 10/08/2017 $0
SILVER 10/08/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 $0.00
Average Grade: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 n/a
Recovery Rate: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 0.00M
Annual Production: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 n/a
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 n/a
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 n/a

Property

Last Analysis Data  (10/08/2017)
Stage Location Name Owned Size (Ha) Type Au Ag Cu Notes
Production Sonora, Mexico San Francisco 100% 45,000 Open Pit show
Two open pit producing mines.

1 million oz in resources (.8 gpt)
Exploration Mexico Ana Paula 100% (guess) 56,000 Open Pit show
2 million oz resource (1.2 gpt)

10 million oz of silver (6 gpt).

The conceptual model implies there is 5 million oz of gold and 30 million oz of silver.
Exploration Mexico Aurea Norte 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
Early exploration. Some drilling.
Exploration Mexico Aurea Sur 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
Early exploration. No drilling yet.
Exploration Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico Cocula 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Puerto Vallarta, Mexico El Capomo 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Mexico El Picacho 0% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Concepcion Del Oro, Mexico Tim Claims 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Sonora, Mexico Trincheras and Patricia 100% n/a n/a n/a
Total Land Package Size (ha): 101,000  
Current Data
Stage Location Name Owned Size (Ha) Type Au Ag Cu Notes
Production Sonora, Mexico San Francisco 100% 45,000 Open Pit show
Two open pit producing mines.

1 million oz in resources (.8 gpt)
Exploration Mexico Ana Paula 100% (guess) 56,000 Open Pit show
2 million oz resource (1.2 gpt)

10 million oz of silver (6 gpt).

The conceptual model implies there is 5 million oz of gold and 30 million oz of silver.
Exploration Mexico Aurea Norte 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
Early exploration. Some drilling.
Exploration Mexico Aurea Sur 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
Early exploration. No drilling yet.
Exploration Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico Cocula 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Puerto Vallarta, Mexico El Capomo 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Mexico El Picacho 0% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Concepcion Del Oro, Mexico Tim Claims 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Sonora, Mexico Trincheras and Patricia 100% n/a n/a n/a
Total Land Package Size (ha): 101,000  

Profitability (by resource)

Proven &
Probable
10/08/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 1.90M 1.90M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -0.63M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 1.62M 1.62M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.54M
Maximum Profit (Gold): $142.44M $159.17M n/a $16.73M
Maximum Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Maximum Profit: $142.44M $159.17M n/a $16.73M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.628 0.981 n/a 0.353
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): $2.74 $3.06 n/a $0.32
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Max Profit Per Share: $2.74 $3.06 n/a $0.32
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $140.48 $100.52 n/a $-39.96
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $1.85 $1.33 n/a $-0.52
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
11.01% 7.79% n/a -3.22%
Measured &
Indicated
10/08/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 2.80M 2.80M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -0.93M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 2.23M 2.23M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.74M
Maximum Profit (Gold): $196.42M $219.49M n/a $23.07M
Maximum Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Maximum Profit: $196.42M $219.49M n/a $23.07M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.866 1.352 n/a 0.486
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): $3.78 $4.22 n/a $0.44
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Max Profit Per Share: $3.78 $4.22 n/a $0.44
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.25 n/a $0.25
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $101.88 $72.90 n/a $-28.98
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $1.34 $0.96 n/a $-0.38
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
7.98% 5.65% n/a -2.34%

Reserves &
Resources
10/08/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): 3.00M 3.00M n/a 0.00M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -1.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: 2.31M 2.31M n/a 0.00M
Silver Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.77M
Maximum Profit (Gold): $203.92M $227.87M n/a $23.95M
Maximum Profit (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Total Maximum Profit: $203.92M $227.87M n/a $23.95M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.899 1.404 n/a 0.505
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): $3.92 $4.38 n/a $0.46
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Total Max Profit Per Share: $3.92 $4.38 n/a $0.46
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.41 n/a $0.41
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $98.13 $70.22 n/a $-27.92
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $1.29 $0.93 n/a $-0.36
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
7.69% 5.44% n/a -2.25%

Future Valuation (Cash Flow & Totals)

Totals 10/08/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
R & R Valuation: $442.52M $447.65M n/a $5.13M
Mkt. Cap: $226.88M $162.34M n/a $-64.54M
Annual Gold Production: (guess) 
85,000oz.
(guess) 
85,000oz.
10/08/2017 0oz.
Annual Silver Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
F

U

T

U

R

E
FD Mkt. Cap: $937.50M $938M n/a $0M
FD Mkt. Cap Growth: 313% 477% n/a 164%
Annual
Production
Gold: 150,000 oz. 150,000 oz. n/a 0 oz.
Silver: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Current FD
Mkt. Cap /
Gold Eq. Reserves: 90.75 64.94 n/a -25.82
Silver Eq. Reserves: 3.63 2.60 n/a -1.03
Gold Eq. Production: 1,512.54 1,082.26 n/a -430.28
Silver Eq. Production: 60.50 43.29 n/a -17.21
P&P
Reserves
(oz.)
Gold: 2.50M 2.50M 10/08/2017 n/a
Silver: n/a n/a 10/08/2017 n/a
Gold Eq.: 2.50M 2.50M 10/08/2017 n/a
Silver Eq.: 62.50M 62.50M 10/08/2017 n/a
P&P Reserves
per FD
Share (oz.)
Gold: 0.048 0.048 n/a n/a
Silver: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Gold Eq.: 0.048 0.048 n/a n/a
Silver Eq.: 1.202 1.202 n/a n/a
Cash Flow 10/08/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Current: $7.50M $8.38M n/a $0.88M
Current Multiple: 30.26 19.38 n/a -10.89
F
U
T
U
R
E
@ current prices: $11.34M $12.67M n/a $1.33M
Multiple @ current prices: 20.01 12.81 n/a -7.20
Growth @ current prices: 51.26% 51.26% n/a 0.00
@ future prices: $121.50M $121.50M n/a $0.00M
Multiple @ future prices: 1.87 1.34 n/a -0.53
Growth @ future prices: 1,350.30% 1,350.30% n/a -1.70

Defaults

We use cookies on this website. By using this site, you agree that we may store and access cookies on your device. Find out more here.     ×