Pan American Silver is one of the best silver producers. They plan to increase silver production from 25 million oz to 30 million oz. As long as silver prices stay high, they are going to be a cash flow machine. Cash costs in 2017 will be around $7 per oz. I would estimate all-in costs (free cash flow) around $13 per oz. They have $205 million in cash and only $43 million in debt. They are extremely leveraged for higher silver prices with such a good balance sheet. They will be able to grow and pay a high dividend.
They are no longer cheap, selling at $2.75 per oz for future reserves. There are really no red flags with this stock. They do have mines in Bolivia and Argentina, which creates location risk. They could lose production from their Bolivian mine at 3 million oz per year (if it were to be nationalized), but they can make up for that from their 5 development projects. Also, I expect them to buy a few projects with their cash flow. Plus, they have 5 million oz of gold resources, producing 150,000 oz annually, which they are using to reduce their cash costs.
If silver mining stocks come into favor for investors, this stock could do really well. It's trading at $18.08 today, but reaching $100 would not be that big of a surprise. Pan American, First Majestic, Endeavour Silver, and Hecla Mining are all basically the same: strong companies that are likely 3-5 baggers. At its current valuation, Pan American might be the best bet from a risk/reward standpoint.
Long term at $100 silver, you could get 30 million oz x $75 per oz free cash flow = $2 billion in cash flow. If they get valued at 10x cash flow, that will make them a potential $20 billion market cap at $100 silver. The FD market cap is currently $2.7 billion. The stock bottomed in January 2016 at $5.63.
General Details
Financial
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
Mkt. Cap (Fully Diluted):
$2,784.32M
$2,658.04M
06/06/2017
$-126.28M
Total Assets:
$1,901.27M
$1,921.81M
06/30/2017
$20.54M
Total Liabilities:
$478.33M
$466.94M
06/30/2017
$-11.39M
Current Assets:
$581.46M
$583.94M
06/30/2017
$2.48M
Current Liabilities:
$158.48M
$154.38M
06/30/2017
$-4.10M
Total Debt:
$43.77M
$46.74M
06/30/2017
$2.97M
Cash:
$205.42M
$198.19M
06/30/2017
$-7.23M
Enterprise Value:
$2,622.67M
$2,506.59M
06/06/2049
$-116.08M
Cash Flow:
$82.08M
$70.00M
never
$-12.08M
Cash Flow Multiple:
33.92
37.97
never
4.05
Net Debt to Cash Flow Ratio:
n/a
n/a
never
0.00
Finance within 1 year:
06/06/2017
n/a
Tax Rate:
(guess) 30.00%
(default) 30.00%
06/06/2017
0.00%
Misc
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
Share Price:
$18.080
$17.260
16:09 on 09/20/2017
$-0.82
Shares Outstanding:
153,000,000
153,170,000
06/30/2017
170,000
Shares Fully Diluted:
154,000,000
154,000,000
06/06/2017
0
Insider Ownership:
n/a
n/a
never
n/a
Company Type:
Mostly Silver
Mostly Silver
never
n/a
Production ETA:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
n/a
Production (Gold Eq Oz.):
(guess) 341,875
(guess) 328,337
06/06/2017
-13,538
Production (Silver Eq Oz.):
(guess) 25,000,000
(guess) 25,000,000
06/06/2017
0
Initial CapEx (Outstanding):
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
n/a
Funding Option:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
n/a
Documentation:
none
PRODUCER
06/06/2017
n/a
Value Adjustment:
none
none
never
0%
Resource Data
GOLD
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
O U N C E S
T O T A L
Proven & Probable:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
0.00M
Measured & Indicated:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
0.00M
Inferred:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
0.00M
Reserves & Resources:
n/a
n/a
never
0.00M
P L A U S I B L E
Proven & Probable:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
0.00M
Measured & Indicated:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
0.00M
Inferred:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
0.00M
Reserves & Resources:
n/a
n/a
never
0.00M
C U R R E N T
Annual Production:
n/a
n/a
0oz.
Cash Cost:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
$0.00
Extra Operating Cost:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
$0.00
Average Grade:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
n/a
Recovery Rate:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
0.00%
F U T U R E
Proven & Probable:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
0.00M
Annual Production:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
n/a
Cash Cost:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
n/a
Extra Operating Cost:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
n/a
SILVER
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
O U N C E S
T O T A L
Proven & Probable:
280.00M
280.00M
06/06/2017
0.00M
Measured & Indicated:
1,000.00M
1,000.00M
06/06/2017
0.00M
Inferred:
250.00M
250.00M
06/06/2017
0.00M
Reserves & Resources:
1,250.00M
1,250.00M
never
0.00M
P L A U S I B L E
Proven & Probable:
252.00M
252.00M
06/06/2017
0.00M
Measured & Indicated:
770.40M
770.40M
06/06/2017
0.00M
Inferred:
112.50M
112.50M
06/06/2017
0.00M
Reserves & Resources:
882.90M
882.90M
never
0.00M
C U R R E N T
Annual Production:
(guess) 25,000,000oz.
(guess) 25,000,000oz.
06/06/2017
0oz.
Cash Cost:
$7
$7
06/06/2017
$0.00
Extra Operating Cost:
$6
$6
06/06/2017
$0.00
Average Grade:
90.00 g/t
90.00 g/t
06/06/2017
n/a
Recovery Rate:
(CG) 90.00%
(CG) 90.00%
06/06/2017
0.00%
F U T U R E
Proven & Probable:
1,000.00M
1,000.00M
06/06/2017
0.00M
Annual Production:
30,000,000oz.
30,000,000oz.
06/06/2017
0oz.
Cash Cost:
$8
$8
06/06/2017
$0
Extra Operating Cost:
$7
$7
06/06/2017
$0
Property
Last Analysis Data (06/06/2017)
Stage
Location
Name
Owned
Type
Au
Ag
Cu
Production
Argentina
Manantial Espejo
100%
n/a
Production
Bolivia
San Vicente
95%
n/a
Production
Mexico
Alamo Dorado
100%
n/a
Production
Mexico
Dolores
100%
n/a
Production
Mexico
La Colorada
100%
n/a
Production
Unish, Peru
Huaron
100%
n/a
Production
Morococha, Junin, Peru
Morococha
92%
n/a
Production
Trujillo, Peru
Quiruvilca
100%
n/a
Development
Mexico
La Bolsa
100%
n/a
Exploration
Argentina
Calcatreu
100%
n/a
Exploration
Argentina
Navidad
100%
n/a
Exploration
Durango, Mexico
La Preciosa
45%
n/a
Exploration
Peru
Pico Machay
100%
n/a
Exploration
USA
Hog Heaven
100%
n/a
Exploration
USA
Waterloo
100%
n/a
Current Data
Stage
Location
Name
Owned
Type
Au
Ag
Cu
Production
Argentina
Manantial Espejo
100%
n/a
Production
Bolivia
San Vicente
95%
n/a
Production
Mexico
Alamo Dorado
100%
n/a
Production
Mexico
Dolores
100%
n/a
Production
Mexico
La Colorada
100%
n/a
Production
Unish, Peru
Huaron
100%
n/a
Production
Morococha, Junin, Peru
Morococha
92%
n/a
Production
Trujillo, Peru
Quiruvilca
100%
n/a
Development
Mexico
La Bolsa
100%
n/a
Exploration
Argentina
Calcatreu
100%
n/a
Exploration
Argentina
Navidad
100%
n/a
Exploration
Durango, Mexico
La Preciosa
45%
n/a
Exploration
Peru
Pico Machay
100%
n/a
Exploration
USA
Hog Heaven
100%
n/a
Exploration
USA
Waterloo
100%
n/a
Profitability (by resource)
Proven & Probable
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
Percentage Gold:
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.00%
Percentage Silver:
100.00%
100.00%
n/a
0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.):
n/a
n/a
n/a
-0.15M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.):
280.00M
280.00M
n/a
0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Gold Eq. Oz.:
n/a
n/a
n/a
-0.14M
Silver Eq. Oz.:
252.00M
252.00M
n/a
0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold):
n/a
n/a
n/a
$0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver):
$827.32M
$705.60M
n/a
$-121.72M
Total Maximum Profit:
$827.32M
$705.60M
n/a
$-121.72M
Max Profit / Current MCap:
0.297
0.265
n/a
-0.032
Max Profit Per Share (Gold):
n/a
n/a
n/a
$0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver):
$5.37
$4.58
n/a
$-0.79
Total Max Profit Per Share:
$5.37
$4.58
n/a
$-0.79
Total Free Profit Per Share:
$0.00
$0.00
n/a
$0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.:
$807.96
$803.12
n/a
$-4.84
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.:
$11.05
$10.55
n/a
$-0.50
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal as % Spot Price:
62.46%
62.05%
n/a
-0.41%
Measured & Indicated
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
Percentage Gold:
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.00%
Percentage Silver:
100.00%
100.00%
n/a
0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.):
n/a
n/a
n/a
-0.54M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.):
1,000.00M
1,000.00M
n/a
0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Gold Eq. Oz.:
n/a
n/a
n/a
-0.42M
Silver Eq. Oz.:
770.40M
770.40M
n/a
0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold):
n/a
n/a
n/a
$0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver):
$2,529.22M
$2,157.12M
n/a
$-372.10M
Total Maximum Profit:
$2,529.22M
$2,157.12M
n/a
$-372.10M
Max Profit / Current MCap:
0.908
0.812
n/a
-0.097
Max Profit Per Share (Gold):
n/a
n/a
n/a
$0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver):
$16.42
$14.01
n/a
$-2.42
Total Max Profit Per Share:
$16.42
$14.01
n/a
$-2.42
Total Free Profit Per Share:
$0.00
$0.00
n/a
$0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.:
$264.29
$262.70
n/a
$-1.58
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.:
$3.61
$3.45
n/a
$-0.16
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal as % Spot Price:
20.43%
20.30%
n/a
-0.13%
Reserves & Resources
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
Percentage Gold:
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.00%
Percentage Silver:
100.00%
100.00%
n/a
0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.):
n/a
n/a
n/a
-0.68M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.):
1,250.00M
1,250.00M
n/a
0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Gold Eq. Oz.:
n/a
n/a
n/a
-0.48M
Silver Eq. Oz.:
882.90M
882.90M
n/a
0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold):
n/a
n/a
n/a
$0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver):
$2,898.56M
$2,472.12M
n/a
$-426.44M
Total Maximum Profit:
$2,898.56M
$2,472.12M
n/a
$-426.44M
Max Profit / Current MCap:
1.041
0.930
n/a
-0.111
Max Profit Per Share (Gold):
n/a
n/a
n/a
$0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver):
$18.82
$16.05
n/a
$-2.77
Total Max Profit Per Share:
$18.82
$16.05
n/a
$-2.77
Total Free Profit Per Share:
$0.74
$0.00
n/a
$-0.74
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.:
$230.61
$229.23
n/a
$-1.38
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.:
$3.15
$3.01
n/a
$-0.14
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal as % Spot Price:
17.83%
17.71%
n/a
-0.12%
Future Valuation (Cash Flow & Totals)
Totals
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
C U R R E N T
R & R Valuation:
$2,342.78M
$2,251.40M
n/a
$-91.38M
Mkt. Cap:
$2,784.32M
$2,658.04M
n/a
$-126.28M
Annual Gold Production:
n/a
n/a
0oz.
Annual Silver Production:
(guess) 25,000,000oz.
(guess) 25,000,000oz.
06/06/2017
0oz.
F
U
T
U
R
E
FD Mkt. Cap:
$15,000.00M
$15,000M
n/a
$0M
FD Mkt. Cap Growth:
439%
464%
n/a
26%
Annual Production
Gold:
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Silver:
30,000,000 oz.
30,000,000 oz.
n/a
0 oz.
Current FD Mkt. Cap /
Gold Eq. Reserves:
69.61
66.45
n/a
-3.16
Silver Eq. Reserves:
2.78
2.66
n/a
-0.13
Gold Eq. Production:
2,320.27
2,215.03
n/a
-105.23
Silver Eq. Production:
92.81
88.60
n/a
-4.21
P&P Reserves (oz.)
Gold:
n/a
n/a
06/06/2017
n/a
Silver:
1,000.00M
1,000.00M
06/06/2017
n/a
Gold Eq.:
40.00M
40.00M
06/06/2017
n/a
Silver Eq.:
1,000.00M
1,000.00M
06/06/2017
n/a
P&P Reserves per FD Share (oz.)
Gold:
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Silver:
6.494
6.494
n/a
n/a
Gold Eq.:
0.260
0.260
n/a
n/a
Silver Eq.:
6.494
6.494
n/a
n/a
Cash Flow
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
Current:
$82.08M
$70.00M
n/a
$-12.08M
Current Multiple:
33.92
37.97
n/a
4.05
F U T U R E
@ current prices:
$48.42M
$36.00M
n/a
$-12.42M
Multiple @ current prices:
57.50
73.83
n/a
16.33
Growth @ current prices:
-41.01%
-48.57%
n/a
-0.08
@ future prices:
$1,530.00M
$1,530.00M
n/a
$0.00M
Multiple @ future prices:
1.82
1.74
n/a
-0.08
Growth @ future prices:
2,085.71%
2,085.71%
n/a
3.22
Defaults
Defaults
06/06/2017 Last Analysis Data
Current Data
Change
Item
Value
Value
Updated
Value
Spot Gold:
$1,293.60
$1,294.40
09/21/2017
$0.80
Spot Silver:
$17.69
$17.00
09/21/2017
$-0.69
Gold:Silver Ratio:
73.13
76.14
09/21/2017
3.02
Spot Gold (Future):
$2,500.00
$2,500.00
$0.00
Spot Silver (Future):
$100.00
$100.00
$0.00
Gold:Silver Ratio (Future):
25.00
25.00
0.00
Gold Cash Cost:
$750.00
$750.00
$0.00
Gold Extra Operating Cost:
$350.00
$350.00
$0.00
Gold Avg. Recovery Rate:
75.00%
75.00%
0.00%
Silver Cash Cost:
$10.00
$10.00
$0.00
Silver Extra Operating Cost:
$6.00
$6.00
$0.00
Silver Avg. Recovery Rate:
75.00%
75.00%
0.00%
Plausibility of P & P:
100.00%
100.00%
0.00%
Plausibility of M & I:
80.00%
80.00%
0.00%
Plausibility of Inferred:
50.00%
50.00%
0.00%
Tax Rate:
30.00%
30.00%
0.00%
Tax Rate (Future):
40.00%
40.00%
0.00%
Future Valuation Multiplier:
15.00%
15.00%
0.00%
text size
Notes
Cash costs for silver are about $7 per oz, net of byproduct.
Email from their investment advisor on 10/17/2013:
We are a primary silver mining company and as such we use a silver-mining standard convention to calculate our production costs based on the amount of silver we produce. Gold, zinc, lead and copper are treated as by-products and revenue received from those by-products is used to offset the costs of producing silver. As such, our cash costs are estimated on a per ounce of silver, net of by-product credit basis. We do not calculate our costs in any other way.
Gold Price (last analysis) ($)
1280.00
Silver Price (last analysis) ($)
17.50
Stock Price (last analysis) ($)
18.08
1 Yr Stock Price High ($)
21.46
Stock Price Change From 1 Yr High (%)
-15%
Stock Price USA 5-Year High ($) (including date)
$42.53 - 3/14/2008
Stock Price USA 5-Year Low ($) (including date)
$5.63 - 1/19/2016
People (wag)
Excellent Management Team
Mine Locations
Peru, Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, USA
Local Issues (wag)
3.5 million oz of production in Bolivia.
Ownership
100%
Country of Incorporation
Canada
Gold Properties
5 million oz of gold (.8 gpt)
2017 production at 150,000 oz.
They also have Zinc, Lead, and copper byproducts.
Silver Properties
7 Producing mines, with a large pipeline of projects (4 projects in development).
Mexico: 3 producing mines, 2 in development
Peru: 2 producing mines, 1 in development
Argentina: 2 in producing mines, 1 in development
Bolivia: 1 producing mine
USA (Nevada): 1 in development
All-in costs (free cash flow) around $13 per oz.
Strong balance sheet: $204 million in cash and only $43 million in debt.
Dividend yield around .5%. Shareholder friendly company.
Hedging
Shareholder Friendly (wag)
Yes.
The plan to grow organically and maintain a cash focus. They bought back 6 million shares in 2013.
Flagship Property
Multiple
Ore Grade (wag)
90 gpt silver avg
.7 gpt gold avg
Drill Results
Rating History
2/5/2017: Decreased rating from 3 to 2.5 after the share price rose to $20.
11/8/2016: Decreased rating from 3.5 to 3 after the stock increased in value.
10/17/2013: Increased rating from 2.5 to 3.5 after it dropped 55%.
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