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Category: Emerging Major
Rating: 2.50   (Likely 3 Bagger as of 06/06/2017)
Risk: Moderate
Pan American Silver Corp.
www: www.panamericansilver.com     email: info@panamericansilver.com

Profile
Notes
Forum
Your Data

Price Data

Symbol Date Price Change 52 Wk Range Volume
NASDAQ:PAAS 07/25/2017 USD 16.35 -0.20 21.59 - 13.80 0
TSE:PAAS 07/25/2017 CAD 20.4300 -0.2600 27.9900 - 18.7000 250,507
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Don's Summary (from last analysis - 06/06/2017)

Pan American Silver is one of the best silver producers. They plan to increase silver production from 25 million oz to 30 million oz. As long as silver prices stay high, they are going to be a cash flow machine. Cash costs in 2017 will be around $7 per oz. I would estimate all-in costs (free cash flow) around $13 per oz. They have $205 million in cash and only $43 million in debt. They are extremely leveraged for higher silver prices with such a good balance sheet. They will be able to grow and pay a high dividend.

They are no longer cheap, selling at $2.75 per oz for future reserves. There are really no red flags with this stock. They do have mines in Bolivia and Argentina, which creates location risk. They could lose production from their Bolivian mine at 3 million oz per year (if it were to be nationalized), but they can make up for that from their 5 development projects. Also, I expect them to buy a few projects with their cash flow. Plus, they have 5 million oz of gold resources, producing 150,000 oz annually, which they are using to reduce their cash costs.

If silver mining stocks come into favor for investors, this stock could do really well. It's trading at $18.08 today, but reaching $100 would not be that big of a surprise. Pan American, First Majestic, Endeavour Silver, and Hecla Mining are all basically the same: strong companies that are likely 3-5 baggers. At its current valuation, Pan American might be the best bet from a risk/reward standpoint.

Long term at $100 silver, you could get 30 million oz x $75 per oz free cash flow = $2 billion in cash flow. If they get valued at 10x cash flow, that will make them a potential $20 billion market cap at $100 silver. The FD market cap is currently $2.7 billion. The stock bottomed in January 2016 at $5.63.

General Details

Financial 06/06/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Mkt. Cap (Fully Diluted): $2,784.32M $2,517.90M 06/06/2017 $-266.42M
Total Assets: $1,901.27M $1,901.27M 06/06/2017 $0.00M
Total Liabilities: $478.33M $478.33M 06/06/2017 $0.00M
Current Assets: $581.46M $581.46M 06/06/2017 $0.00M
Current Liabilities: $158.48M $158.48M 06/06/2017 $0.00M
Total Debt: $43.77M $43.77M 06/06/2017 $0.00M
Cash: $205.42M $205.42M 06/06/2017 $0.00M
Enterprise Value: $2,622.67M $2,356.25M 08/31/2044 $-266.42M
Cash Flow: $82.08M $58.63M never $-23.45M
Cash Flow Multiple: 33.92 42.95 never 9.03
Net Debt to Cash Flow Ratio: n/a n/a never 0.00
Finance within 1 year: 06/06/2017 n/a
Tax Rate: (guess)  30.00% (default)  30.00% 06/06/2017 0.00%
Misc 06/06/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Share Price: $18.080 $16.350 16:07 on 07/25/2017 $-1.73
Shares Outstanding: 153,000,000 153,000,000 06/06/2017 0
Shares Fully Diluted: 154,000,000 154,000,000 06/06/2017 0
Insider Ownership: n/a n/a never n/a
Company Type: Mostly Silver Mostly Silver never n/a
Production ETA: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 n/a
Production (Gold Eq Oz.): (guess) 
341,875
(guess) 
328,181
06/06/2017 -13,694
Production (Silver Eq Oz.): (guess) 
25,000,000
(guess) 
25,000,000
06/06/2017 0
Initial CapEx (Outstanding): n/a n/a 06/06/2017 n/a
Funding Option: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 n/a
Documentation: none PRODUCER 06/06/2017 n/a
Value Adjustment: none none never 0%

Resource Data

GOLD 06/06/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 $0.00
Average Grade: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 n/a
Recovery Rate: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 0.00M
Annual Production: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 n/a
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 n/a
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 n/a
SILVER 06/06/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: 280.00M 280.00M 06/06/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 1,000.00M 1,000.00M 06/06/2017 0.00M
Inferred: 250.00M 250.00M 06/06/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 1,250.00M 1,250.00M never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: 252.00M 252.00M 06/06/2017 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 770.40M 770.40M 06/06/2017 0.00M
Inferred: 112.50M 112.50M 06/06/2017 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 882.90M 882.90M never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: (guess) 
25,000,000oz.
(guess) 
25,000,000oz.
06/06/2017 0oz.
Cash Cost: $7 $7 06/06/2017 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: $6 $6 06/06/2017 $0.00
Average Grade: 90.00 g/t 90.00 g/t 06/06/2017 n/a
Recovery Rate: (CG)  90.00% (CG)  90.00% 06/06/2017 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: 1,000.00M 1,000.00M 06/06/2017 0.00M
Annual Production: 30,000,000oz. 30,000,000oz. 06/06/2017 0oz.
Cash Cost: $8 $8 06/06/2017 $0
Extra Operating Cost: $7 $7 06/06/2017 $0

Property

Last Analysis Data  (06/06/2017)
Stage Location Name Owned Type Au Ag Cu
Production Argentina Manantial Espejo 100% n/a
Production Bolivia San Vicente 95% n/a
Production Mexico Alamo Dorado 100% n/a
Production Mexico Dolores 100% n/a
Production Mexico La Colorada 100% n/a
Production Unish, Peru Huaron 100% n/a
Production Morococha, Junin, Peru Morococha 92% n/a
Production Trujillo, Peru Quiruvilca 100% n/a
Development Mexico La Bolsa 100% n/a
Exploration Argentina Calcatreu 100% n/a
Exploration Argentina Navidad 100% n/a
Exploration Durango, Mexico La Preciosa 45% n/a
Exploration Peru Pico Machay 100% n/a
Exploration USA Hog Heaven 100% n/a
Exploration USA Waterloo 100% n/a
Current Data
Stage Location Name Owned Type Au Ag Cu
Production Argentina Manantial Espejo 100% n/a
Production Bolivia San Vicente 95% n/a
Production Mexico Alamo Dorado 100% n/a
Production Mexico Dolores 100% n/a
Production Mexico La Colorada 100% n/a
Production Unish, Peru Huaron 100% n/a
Production Morococha, Junin, Peru Morococha 92% n/a
Production Trujillo, Peru Quiruvilca 100% n/a
Development Mexico La Bolsa 100% n/a
Exploration Argentina Calcatreu 100% n/a
Exploration Argentina Navidad 100% n/a
Exploration Durango, Mexico La Preciosa 45% n/a
Exploration Peru Pico Machay 100% n/a
Exploration USA Hog Heaven 100% n/a
Exploration USA Waterloo 100% n/a

Profitability (by resource)

Proven &
Probable
06/06/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -0.15M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 280.00M 280.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.14M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 252.00M 252.00M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $827.32M $590.94M n/a $-236.38M
Total Maximum Profit: $827.32M $590.94M n/a $-236.38M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.297 0.235 n/a -0.062
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $5.37 $3.84 n/a $-1.53
Total Max Profit Per Share: $5.37 $3.84 n/a $-1.53
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $807.96 $761.14 n/a $-46.82
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $11.05 $9.99 n/a $-1.06
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
62.46% 61.11% n/a -1.35%
Measured &
Indicated
06/06/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -0.55M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 1,000.00M 1,000.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.42M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 770.40M 770.40M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $2,529.22M $1,806.59M n/a $-722.64M
Total Maximum Profit: $2,529.22M $1,806.59M n/a $-722.64M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.908 0.717 n/a -0.191
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $16.42 $11.73 n/a $-4.69
Total Max Profit Per Share: $16.42 $11.73 n/a $-4.69
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $264.29 $248.97 n/a $-15.32
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $3.61 $3.27 n/a $-0.35
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
20.43% 19.99% n/a -0.44%

Reserves &
Resources
06/06/2017
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -0.68M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 1,250.00M 1,250.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.48M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 882.90M 882.90M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $2,898.56M $2,070.40M n/a $-828.16M
Total Maximum Profit: $2,898.56M $2,070.40M n/a $-828.16M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 1.041 0.822 n/a -0.219
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $18.82 $13.44 n/a $-5.38
Total Max Profit Per Share: $18.82 $13.44 n/a $-5.38
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.74 $0.00 n/a $-0.74
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $230.61 $217.25 n/a $-13.36
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $3.15 $2.85 n/a $-0.30
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
17.83% 17.44% n/a -0.38%

Future Valuation (Cash Flow & Totals)

Totals 06/06/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
R & R Valuation: $2,342.78M $2,165.31M n/a $-177.46M
Mkt. Cap: $2,784.32M $2,517.90M n/a $-266.42M
Annual Gold Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
Annual Silver Production: (guess) 
25,000,000oz.
(guess) 
25,000,000oz.
06/06/2017 0oz.
F

U

T

U

R

E
FD Mkt. Cap: $15,000.00M $15,000M n/a $0M
FD Mkt. Cap Growth: 439% 496% n/a 57%
Annual
Production
Gold: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Silver: 30,000,000 oz. 30,000,000 oz. n/a 0 oz.
Current FD
Mkt. Cap /
Gold Eq. Reserves: 69.61 62.95 n/a -6.66
Silver Eq. Reserves: 2.78 2.52 n/a -0.27
Gold Eq. Production: 2,320.27 2,098.25 n/a -222.02
Silver Eq. Production: 92.81 83.93 n/a -8.88
P&P
Reserves
(oz.)
Gold: n/a n/a 06/06/2017 n/a
Silver: 1,000.00M 1,000.00M 06/06/2017 n/a
Gold Eq.: 40.00M 40.00M 06/06/2017 n/a
Silver Eq.: 1,000.00M 1,000.00M 06/06/2017 n/a
P&P Reserves
per FD
Share (oz.)
Gold: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Silver: 6.494 6.494 n/a n/a
Gold Eq.: 0.260 0.260 n/a n/a
Silver Eq.: 6.494 6.494 n/a n/a
Cash Flow 06/06/2017
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Current: $82.08M $58.63M n/a $-23.45M
Current Multiple: 33.92 42.95 n/a 9.03
F
U
T
U
R
E
@ current prices: $48.42M $24.30M n/a $-24.12M
Multiple @ current prices: 57.50 103.62 n/a 46.11
Growth @ current prices: -41.01% -58.55% n/a -0.18
@ future prices: $1,530.00M $1,530.00M n/a $0.00M
Multiple @ future prices: 1.82 1.65 n/a -0.17
Growth @ future prices: 2,509.81% 2,509.81% n/a 7.46

Defaults

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