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Category: Mid-tier Producer
Rating: 3.00   (Potential 5 Bagger as of 01/14/2018)
Risk: Moderate
First Majestic Silver Corp
www: www.firstmajestic.com     email: info@firstmajestic.com

Profile
Notes
Forum
Your Data

Price Data

Symbol Date Price
NYSE:AG 02/23/2018 USD 5.58
TSE:FR 02/16/2018 warning CAD 7.2600
Alert me when stock is updated

Don's Summary (from last analysis - 01/14/2018)

First Majestic Silver is a large silver producer in Mexico. They recently acquired Primero Mining for $320 million. I am assuming this deal will close. Their resources, production, shares, and debt reflect this deal closing. Their production will increase from around 17 million silver eq oz in 2018 to around 25 million silver eq oz (their share). They have to give Wheaton Precious Metals 25% of the gold equivalent production at San Dimas at $600 per oz. Hopefully, their cash costs will be near the $600 number.

Investors didn't like the deal because First Majestic lost money last quarter with all-in costs (free cash flow) around $16 per oz. Without positive free cash flow, investors didn't like FM using up their cash to make this deal. They had to assume around $100 million in debt. Thus, FM no longer has a pristine balance sheet with no debt. However, for those who are forward-thinking, the cash flow potential of FM just jumped significantly. They now have the potential to create over $2 billion in free cash flow at $100 silver prices. At a 5x free cash flow valuation, FM should be worth at least $10 billion at $100 silver. My expectation is $12 billion as long as Mexico doesn't increase taxes and royalties, and FM hits their production and cost targets.

They will now have 7 producing mines in Mexico with 168 million oz of silver eq reserves and about 400 million oz of resources. There is some risk with this stock because of their high all-in costs, but they have one of the best management teams in the business. Once silver reaches $18, they are going to be producing a lot of cash flow and investors will run to this stock. It has huge leverage to silver prices. They are one the few pure silver miners, with about 75% of revenue from silver.

General Details

Financial 01/14/2018
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Mkt. Cap (Fully Diluted): $1,370.97M $1,126.15M 01/14/2018 $-244.82M
Total Assets: $750.00M $750.00M 01/14/2018 $0.00M
Total Liabilities: $73.00M $73.00M 01/14/2018 $0.00M
Current Assets: $122.00M $122.00M 01/14/2018 $0.00M
Current Liabilities: $73.00M $73.00M 01/14/2018 $0.00M
Total Debt: $100.00M $100.00M 01/14/2018 $0.00M
Cash: $122.00M $122.00M 01/14/2018 $0.00M
Enterprise Value: $1,348.97M $1,104.15M 12/27/2004 $-244.82M
Cash Flow: $9.80M $0.00M never $-9.80M
Cash Flow Multiple: 139.90 0.00 never -139.90
Net Debt to Cash Flow Ratio: n/a n/a never 0.00
Finance within 1 year: 01/14/2018 n/a
Tax Rate: (guess)  30.00% (default)  30.00% 01/14/2018 0.00%
Misc 01/14/2018
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Share Price: $6.787 $5.575 16:02 on 02/23/2018 $-1.21
Shares Outstanding: 193,000,000 193,000,000 01/14/2018 0
Shares Fully Diluted: 202,000,000 202,000,000 01/14/2018 0
Insider Ownership: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
Company Type: Mostly Silver Mostly Silver never n/a
Production ETA: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
Production (Gold Eq Oz.): (guess) 
257,215
(guess) 
248,457
01/14/2018 -8,759
Production (Silver Eq Oz.): (guess) 
20,000,000
(guess) 
20,000,000
01/14/2018 0
Initial CapEx (Outstanding): n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
Funding Option: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
Documentation: none PRODUCER 01/14/2018 n/a
Value Adjustment: 100% 100% never 0%

Resource Data

GOLD 01/14/2018
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 $0.00
Average Grade: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
Recovery Rate: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 0.00M
Annual Production: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
SILVER 01/14/2018
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: 170.00M 170.00M 01/14/2018 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 250.00M 250.00M 01/14/2018 0.00M
Inferred: 250.00M 250.00M 01/14/2018 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 500.00M 500.00M never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: 153.00M 153.00M 01/14/2018 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 210.60M 210.60M 01/14/2018 0.00M
Inferred: 112.50M 112.50M 01/14/2018 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 323.10M 323.10M never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: (guess) 
20,000,000oz.
(guess) 
20,000,000oz.
01/14/2018 0oz.
Cash Cost: $8 $8 01/14/2018 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: $9 $9 01/14/2018 $0.00
Average Grade: 150.00 g/t 150.00 g/t 01/14/2018 n/a
Recovery Rate: (CG)  90.00% (CG)  90.00% 01/14/2018 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: 400.00M 400.00M 01/14/2018 0.00M
Annual Production: 27,000,000oz. 27,000,000oz. 01/14/2018 0oz.
Cash Cost: $9 $9 01/14/2018 $0
Extra Operating Cost: $9 $9 01/14/2018 $0

Property

Last Analysis Data  (01/14/2018)
Stage Location Name Owned Size (Ha) Type Au Ag Cu Notes
Production Boquillas Del Cármen, Mexico La Encantada 100% n/a n/a n/a
Production San Jose De La Prrilla, Mexico La Parrilla 100% n/a n/a n/a
Production Mexico, Mexico San Dimas 100% (guess) n/a Underground show
134 million oz at 300 gpt

plus gold production sold at cost.
Production San Martin De Bolanos, Mexico San Martin 100% n/a n/a n/a
Production Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico Santa Elena 100% n/a n/a show
Expansion scheduled for 2014.
Development Chalchihuites, Mexico Del Toro 100% 1 n/a show
1 of 5 long life producing mines. Number 6 is under development.
Exploration Mexico Cruz de Mayo 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Durango, Mexico La Joya 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
$141 million capex.

2 million oz of annual silver production planned.
Exploration Matehuala, Mexico La Luz 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration El Salvador El Zapote 100% n/a n/a n/a
Total Land Package Size (ha): 1  
Current Data
Stage Location Name Owned Size (Ha) Type Au Ag Cu Notes
Production Boquillas Del Cármen, Mexico La Encantada 100% n/a n/a n/a
Production San Jose De La Prrilla, Mexico La Parrilla 100% n/a n/a n/a
Production Mexico, Mexico San Dimas 100% (guess) n/a Underground show
134 million oz at 300 gpt

plus gold production sold at cost.
Production San Martin De Bolanos, Mexico San Martin 100% n/a n/a n/a
Production Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico Santa Elena 100% n/a n/a show
Expansion scheduled for 2014.
Development Chalchihuites, Mexico Del Toro 100% 1 n/a show
1 of 5 long life producing mines. Number 6 is under development.
Exploration Mexico Cruz de Mayo 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Durango, Mexico La Joya 100% (guess) n/a n/a show
$141 million capex.

2 million oz of annual silver production planned.
Exploration Matehuala, Mexico La Luz 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration El Salvador El Zapote 100% n/a n/a n/a
Total Land Package Size (ha): 1  

Profitability (by resource)

Proven &
Probable
01/14/2018
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -0.07M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 170.00M 170.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.07M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 153.00M 153.00M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $149.94M $0.00M n/a $-149.94M
Total Maximum Profit: $149.94M $0.00M n/a $-149.94M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.109 n/a n/a -0.109
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $0.74 $0.00 n/a $-0.74
Total Max Profit Per Share: $0.74 $0.00 n/a $-0.74
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $696.74 $592.49 n/a $-104.25
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $8.96 $7.36 n/a $-1.60
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
52.10% 44.61% n/a -7.49%
Measured &
Indicated
01/14/2018
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -0.11M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 250.00M 250.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.09M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 210.60M 210.60M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $206.39M $0.00M n/a $-206.39M
Total Maximum Profit: $206.39M $0.00M n/a $-206.39M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.151 n/a n/a -0.151
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $1.02 $0.00 n/a $-1.02
Total Max Profit Per Share: $1.02 $0.00 n/a $-1.02
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $506.18 $430.44 n/a $-75.73
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $6.51 $5.35 n/a $-1.16
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
37.85% 32.41% n/a -5.44%

Reserves &
Resources
01/14/2018
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -0.22M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 500.00M 500.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -0.14M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 323.10M 323.10M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $316.64M $0.00M n/a $-316.64M
Total Maximum Profit: $316.64M $0.00M n/a $-316.64M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 0.231 n/a n/a -0.231
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $1.57 $0.00 n/a $-1.57
Total Max Profit Per Share: $1.57 $0.00 n/a $-1.57
Total Free Profit Per Share: $0.00 $0.00 n/a $0.00
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $329.93 $280.57 n/a $-49.36
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $4.24 $3.49 n/a $-0.76
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
24.67% 21.12% n/a -3.55%

Future Valuation (Cash Flow & Totals)

Totals 01/14/2018
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
R & R Valuation: $833.60M $799.67M n/a $-33.93M
Mkt. Cap: $1,370.97M $1,126.15M n/a $-244.82M
Annual Gold Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
Annual Silver Production: (guess) 
20,000,000oz.
(guess) 
20,000,000oz.
01/14/2018 0oz.
F

U

T

U

R

E
FD Mkt. Cap: $12,000.00M $12,000M n/a $0M
FD Mkt. Cap Growth: 775% 966% n/a 190%
Annual
Production
Gold: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Silver: 27,000,000 oz. 27,000,000 oz. n/a 0 oz.
Current FD
Mkt. Cap /
Gold Eq. Reserves: 85.69 70.38 n/a -15.30
Silver Eq. Reserves: 3.43 2.82 n/a -0.61
Gold Eq. Production: 1,269.42 1,042.73 n/a -226.69
Silver Eq. Production: 50.78 41.71 n/a -9.07
P&P
Reserves
(oz.)
Gold: n/a n/a 01/14/2018 n/a
Silver: 400.00M 400.00M 01/14/2018 n/a
Gold Eq.: 16.00M 16.00M 01/14/2018 n/a
Silver Eq.: 400.00M 400.00M 01/14/2018 n/a
P&P Reserves
per FD
Share (oz.)
Gold: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Silver: 1.980 1.980 n/a n/a
Gold Eq.: 0.079 0.079 n/a n/a
Silver Eq.: 1.980 1.980 n/a n/a
Cash Flow 01/14/2018
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Current: $9.80M $0.00M n/a $-9.80M
Current Multiple: 139.90 0.00 n/a -139.90
F
U
T
U
R
E
@ current prices: $0.00M $0.00M n/a $0.00M
Multiple @ current prices: 0.00 0.00 n/a 0.00
Growth @ current prices: 0.00% 0.00% n/a 0.00
@ future prices: $2,656.80M $2,656.80M n/a $0.00M
Multiple @ future prices: 0.52 0.42 n/a -0.09
Growth @ future prices: 0.00% 0.00% n/a -270.10

Defaults

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